Monday, June 06, 2005

Windows' Death Knell

The "Apple model" is changing. If Apple fails to make a version of its OS available to the Wintel public, it will take decades to reach market parity with Windows. Not releasing Mac OS X on the Wintel world to save Apple's hardware division would be like cutting off the nose to spite the face. By opening up the Mac OS X market to all Intel boxes (and I assume AMD boxes as well) Apple will be in direct competition with Microsoft. That has never been the case.
The central advantage of Windows (that it can be installed on a wide variety of boxes) would disappear overnight. Reliability could be at least as good as Windows, but without the viruses and spyware. Those who wanted the ultimate in stability and style could still buy a 100% Apple system. The important thing is that no sane IT director would chose to keep his computers on Windows because the cost of changing would be software alone, i.e., their hardware could sit still. Then Apple gets a real crack at the corporate market. Then Bill Gates will be left with a pile of worthless paper in all his Microsoft stock (he'll still be rich because he has steadily divested his MS interest, but think of all the new fortunes to be made in Apple stock!!).
This is not a redux of the clone fiasco, because Apple is not licensing its OS to new developers to expand its market share. It is (or could be) launching a frontal attack against Microsoft's market share.
Apple's hardware division will not die, in fact its longevity will be guaranteed by a Wintel-compatible Mac OS. Witness the Xbox; it is a billion dollar negative entry on the MS balance sheet - and little more than a blip in comparison to its big brother Windows. When Apple is the standard OS, think of the R&D dollars Apple will have to spend on its hardware.
This could be the start of something profound.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hey this is your local techie.... we need to talk about this in person... i am in the east coast hangin read your post and have a LOT to say... :)

I dont if you have read or this is a response to the recent Apple and Intel deal which would make apple computers core processor x86(intel architecture) based rather that the previous 14 year power pc (ibm) based architecture.

Misconception 1: Apple does not do much r and d in hardware.. other than finding other companies to make the quality parts... apple makes the core software package and puts it toghther in a friendly and very sexy package :) think if dell made its own OS also.. anyways...

i dont understand how apple can open up the box... that is not how apple works.. it would be like changing Sony playstations being sold with interchangable parts.. upgrade as you go.. entirely different business structure. also there is currently an emulator that allows people to install the operating system osx on a windows based system.. wintel.. and opensource pearpc... the operating is a front for the hardware.. the stability of a mac system is largly in part of apple having complete control of what goes into the system.. cheap parts (ie most hps, some dells, and those other crappy computer companies) lead to system instability.

... well i am rambling... but this recent change to Intel architecture is a massive step in some direction (possibly notebook realm) Remember that apple is not about building the fastest cheapest accessible computer... its about the user experience....

oh misconception number 2:

the billion (most likely hundreds of millions) dollar revenue cut was offset by the outstanding success of the game halo 2 which actually gave the entire msft entertainment division positive numbers in the books. also since they have 36 billion in CASH... they realized the first step to getting into the market will offset the costs in the long run.. hence the possible success of the xbox 360. msft is gonna have to move away from riding the windows success.. because of the industry is embracing open source free software.. they will have to follow suite.. so the money is in entertainment and IT healthcare..

hehe... i like this subject... not many in our group like to talk about the technology industry...